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Instead, it's trying to estimate the strength of the dampening term - a term that might be actually invisible in the initial data. A logistic curve is a function that starts out growing like an exponential, but then diminishing returns hits in, and the curve plateaus:. The broader category of curves that look like logistic curves are sigmoidsand they appear all over the place - population growth, virus spreading, and so on. I've seen a few examples and arguments as to why it's so hard to predict the turning points and maximums of a sigmoid; I wrote one myself.

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